Bizarre Media Math

As our market is in the process of converting from Metered Market to Local People Meters, I have encountered all sorts of bizarre ways in which agencies and clients are attempting to create ratings projections for the future. Every agency has been trained in the basic media math formula:

Shares (Most Recent Sweeps Period) X HUTS (From most recent sweeps falling into the quarter in which you plan to air spots) = Rating

The problem is, we still don't have HUT/PUT levels for the LPM market for February through June. Because you are mixing two completely different methodologies, I refuse to allow clients to project LPM shares against MM HUT levels.

This is leading our clients to develop all sorts of off-the-wall techniques for projecting. Some are using the most recent book, some are only looking at the traditional sweeps periods. Some are comparing the ratings from 2007 to 2006 and bringing down February and May 2006 ratings by that same percent. Some are comparing the total GRPs from 2006 to 2007 and bringing down estimates. Some are using actuals from the year before. One agency today came up with the most bizarre combination, involving comparing November 2007 HUTs to November 2006 HUTs, and adjusting 2006 ratings by the same percentage, and but then looking at LPM ratings and waving a fine dusting of fairy dust over it all - I just shook my head sadly at it all.

In my opinion (and since its my blog, all you get is my opinion), the agencies are making things more difficult than they have to. I now have seven months worth of trending data for all of my programs, and to be honest, I really don't see a lot of variation in the regular daily programs. If for seven months, a program has averaged to a 2 rating (maybe 1.9 one month and 2.1 the next), you can be pretty confident that the program will deliver a 2 in February and May. Let's all subscribe to the KISS theory here: Keep It Simple Stupid.