NBC 2008-2009 Schedule

The new NBC 2008-2009 schedule was recently announced, so I have been examining these new programs very closely in order to attempt to predict their ratings success (or failure).

Generating estimates for new programming is truly an art form. We RDs typically use past performance history of similar shows to indicate the type of audience that may watch a particular show. This involves analyzing each show and trying to find a similar show on my network or any other network that can be used as a similar comparison. In addition, much like the stock market, I like to say "past results do NOT guarantee future success".

NBC made it tough this year by not providing pilots to watch. Its very difficult to understand the tone and feel of a show from a single paragraph written description, and thus it is difficult to find comparison shows. NBC also varied from the "norm" on a number of points. One, most networks announce their Fall schedules in meetings called "upfronts", usually held in May. NBC announced its schedule a full 6 weeks early, getting the jump on the competition. The downside is, as previously mentioned, no pilots to preview these programs. The advertising community must judge the strength of a new show simply on the strength of the person describing ("selling") the show. I can see where this will get very iffy, as the schedule filters its way down to the local level.

Secondly, NBC presented not just a schedule for Fall, but a full Fall-Winter-Spring-Summer 2008-2009 schedule. Knowing, as I do, NBC's proclivities towards frequent program changes, I am not likely to trust that the schedule presented to me will actually ever air in its entirety.